Forecast Summary & Assumption Rationale
Market Entry
SME-first - avg 50 employees at launch, rising to 250 by month 24 as early credibility opens enterprise doors.
Trial Conversion - 70%
Trials are semi-pre-qualified - warm funnel via referral and outreach, not cold. Potters Resorts and Breakwater IT validate early.
Acquisition - 1 to 5/Week
Compound growth of ~7.25%/month. No sales hire, partnership deal, or PR moment assumed - purely consistent channel execution.
Annual Churn - 25%
Deliberately cautious - 1 in 4 clients does not renew. Reflects early-stage risk. Expected to fall materially as the product embeds and larger clients dominate.
Billing Mix
Y1: 65% monthly billing (£4/emp), 35% annual (£2/emp) - blended £3.30/emp. Shifts to 55/45 in Y2 (£2.90/emp) as trust builds.
Cost Base
£25,000/mo fixed - staff, contractor, CRM, marketing. +1%/month compound creep to ~£31,400 by month 24. No additional headcount assumed.
New Trials
1 → 5 per week
Smooth growth · Jul '26 → Jun '28
Trial-to-Paid Conversion
70%
After up to 2 months free
Avg Employees / Client
50 → 250
Via 150 at end of Year 1
Annual Client Churn
25%
Applied monthly to paying base
Founder Rate
First 50 clients
£1/emp/mo · locked for life
Billing Mix (Standard)
Y1: 65% monthly
Y2: 45% monthly · £2 annual / £4 monthly
Cost Creep
+1% per month
£25k → ~£31.4k by month 24
Average Employees per Client - Gradual Ramp · SME-first market entry transitioning to enterprise mix
50
Jul '26
150 · Jun '27
250
Jun '28
◀ Year 1 - smaller clients, faster decisions, proof of value
Year 2 - enterprise clients opening up as credibility builds ▶
Monthly Revenue & Costs - Cumulative P&L
Revenue
Costs (+1%/mo)
Cumulative P&L (right axis)
New Trials per Week & Paying Clients
New trials/wk
Paying clients (right)
Monthly Cost Base - 1% Compound Monthly Creep
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A 1% per month compound increase reflects real-world drift - salary reviews, additional tooling, and overhead growth as the business scales. Costs rise from £25,000 at go-live to ~£31,400 by month 24 (~26% over two years).
Go-Live
£25,000
July 2026
→
Month 24
£31,429
June 2028
Covers all staff, technical contractor, CRM platform, operations and marketing.
+1%/month compound over 24 months.
+1%/month compound over 24 months.
Revenue Model - Per Employee / Month
Founder Rate - First 50 Paying Clients
?
Locked in for the life of the contract. The 50th client is reached around month 11 of trading. As the employee average rises throughout this period, later founder-rate clients are worth more per month than early ones.
£1 per employee / month
Annual billing only · 50 emp = £50/mo · 150 emp = £150/mo
Standard Rate - Client 51 Onwards
ANNUAL £2 / emp / month · billed yearly
MONTHLY £4 / emp / month · billed monthly
Blended effective rate: £3.30/emp in Year 1 → £2.90/emp in Year 2
MONTHLY £4 / emp / month · billed monthly
Blended effective rate: £3.30/emp in Year 1 → £2.90/emp in Year 2
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Trials/Wk?New trial starts per week. Grows smoothly from 1/week at go-live to 5/week by June 2028, compounding at ~7.25%/month. | → Paid?Organisations completing their 2-month free trial that converted to paying clients this month. 70% conversion rate applied. | Paying?Total active paying client organisations at month end. New conversions added; 25% annual churn (applied monthly) subtracted. | Avg Emp?Model assumption for average employees per client this month. Ramps from 50 at go-live to 150 by end of Year 1, then to 250 by end of Year 2. | Total Emp?Total employees tracked across all paying clients - Paying Clients × Avg Emp. | Revenue?Founder clients (first 50) at £1/emp/mo. Standard clients: Y1 effective £3.30/emp/mo, Y2 effective £2.90/emp/mo. | Costs?£25,000/mo at go-live, compounding at 1% per month. Reaches ~£31,400 by month 24. | Net P&L?Monthly revenue minus costs. Green ★ marks the first month the business reaches monthly operating profit. |
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Go-To-Market Activities
The overarching GTM strategy is Founding 50 Employers → UK Benchmark Report → Awards Programme. Build a cohort of 50 active employers, publish their anonymised data as the first UK Employee Happiness Benchmark, then use the awards as a distribution engine - EHS becomes the measurement standard behind the award, amplifying every channel below. The 1→5 trials/week curve requires no single channel to perform exceptionally; it reflects consistent execution across the six activities already in place.
Referral & Word of Mouth
Lowest cost, highest trust. Potters Resorts and Breakwater IT are reference clients from day one. Award-recognised employers in the Founding 50 cohort become the most powerful referral source as the programme scales.
Primary driver
Months 1–24 · no paid spend · compounds as client base grows
Direct Outreach
Targeted LinkedIn and email outreach to HR Directors and MDs in hospitality, leisure, and professional services. Low volume, high quality. The Founding 50 invitation replaces a product pitch with a compelling offer: be among the first UK employers to benchmark employee happiness nationally.
Execution
Months 1–18 · 5–10 conversations/week · 1→3 trials/week
Content & Inbound
EHS Signals blog and pillar pages already live. The UK Employee Happiness Benchmark Report - published from Founding 50 data - becomes the anchor asset: PR-worthy, linkable, and impossible for competitors to replicate.
Compounding
Months 6–24 · SEO builds gradually · 3–5 trials/week in Y2
Strategic Partnerships
3–5 HR consultants, benefits brokers, and people-advisory firms who serve the same ICP. Natural awards sponsors - giving partners a commercial reason to actively promote EHS to their own client base.
Year 2 accelerator
Months 9–24 · relationship-led · unlocks enterprise clients
LinkedIn Ads
Sponsored content targeting HR Directors and MDs by title, company size, and sector. Awards-led creative - "Is your organisation one of the UK's Happiest Employers?" - gives the paid channel a hook that outperforms generic product ads.
Paid - B2B targeted
Months 3–24 · ICP-precise · scales with budget
Google Search Ads
Campaigns already tested, targeting high-intent queries from leaders searching for employee sentiment solutions. The benchmark and awards create new search demand in Y2 - "employee happiness score UK", award entry terms - that paid and organic both capture.
Paid - intent-driven
Months 1–24 · live at launch · efficiency improves over time
Product Development Roadmap - Go-Live 1 July 2026
Critical path items only. Minor tasks, fixes, and polish items are tracked separately. Sequencing confirmed with the development team.
Critical path note: All items above are confirmed in the development backlog and sequenced for completion ahead of 1 July 2026. The bank account flag on item 1 is the only external dependency - all other items are within the team's direct control.
Marketing Activity - Launch Readiness
Tracked across two workstreams: Strategic GTM Tasks and CRM and Automation Requirements. Key activity groups below.
Complete / In Progress
Custom HubSpot properties (8/8 ✓) · CRM foundations · Email & automation sequences (3/14) · Content & SEO (4/7) · All CTAs updated to 'Start your free cycle'
Awards & Partnerships
Founding 50 → Benchmark → Awards GTM sequenced · Awards partner outreach & channel mapping · Existing partner comms · Awards Pack in progress
Pipeline & Outreach
Sales & pipeline (0/3 - post-launch) · Sector-specific landing pages · Warm network outreach · Networking & events
Doing Right Now
EHS Legal & Compliance · 'What you'll need before you start' page · Onboarding journey map · Billing spec · EHS Signals blog update · EHS PDF updates